The number of interstate gas project applications submitted to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission peaked in 2015 at 64 and reached the lowest point in 15 years in 2023, according to Arbo, an energy infrastructure analytics firm.
"Today, most development occurs in areas like Texas and Louisiana where federal jurisdiction doesn't apply and state-level approvals are reliable," said Reilly Meinert, data scientist at Arbo.
Former President Donald Trump has promised to "blast through every bureaucratic hurdle" for pipeline permitting if reelected. But in the 2024 election cycle, control of Congress will be just as critical to the future of midstream gas project permitting as who occupies the Oval Office, according to energy sector experts.
Executive actions face an array of limitations, including the many environmental laws integral to federal project permitting, the role states play, and the highly litigious environment surrounding natural gas and other fossil fuel projects.
Policy observers said it will take congressional action on permitting to help draw investment in new interstate gas projects.
"We can really easily have a flip-flop of how permitting regimes get implemented every four to eight years with new administrations, but what we really need is policy certainty around that permitting process and we're really only going to get that with legislation," said Xan Fishman, senior director of the energy program at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Development trends
Multiple gas pipeline projects in the Eastern US have been stalled through litigation over federal permits. In 2023, 5.2 Bcf/d of intrastate capacity was added in the US, compared with less than 1.0 Bcf/d of interstate pipeline capacity additions, according to US Energy Information Administration's calculations.
The number of interstate gas project applications submitted to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission peaked in 2015 at 64 and reached the lowest point in 15 years in 2023, according to Arbo, an energy infrastructure analytics firm.
Trump has emphasized his plans to use executive action to accelerate permits for a wide swath of projects, including pipelines.
In a Sept. 5 speech, he promised to issue a national emergency declaration to achieve a "massive increase" in domestic energy supplies, as well eliminating bureaucratic hurdles for a wide array of permits. Details around those goals remain murky, however.
"A lot of what [former] President Trump can do is undo," Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance, said in an interview.
"Based on everything I've seen, he's going to go through all of the Biden executive orders and regulations and everything else and look for ways he can undo what he would perceive to be impediments to getting projects built or done, which is largely a redo of what he did while he was president."
That could include restoring a government-wide focus on "energy dominance" and seeking to revive Trump-era regulations limiting the scope of National Environmental Policy Act reviews and narrowing states' ability to slow projects through Clean Water Act authorities.
How much a Trump administration could impact permitting timelines, though, "really depends on what he has for a Congress," Pyle said.
Congressional action is key to altering project approval timelines, James Coleman, University of Minnesota law professor, also emphasized.
"Your scope to speed up permitting is limited unless Congress helps," Coleman said. "There are short-term things you can do that might help on the margins that aren't transformative, like issuing new regulations."
And judges' NEPA interpretations play a significant role in project outcomes, Coleman added.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been less explicit about her goal for fossil fuel infrastructure. She recently voiced support for permitting reform, albeit in general terms.
Harris has reversed her prior stance on upstream development, however. Previously in favor of banning fracking, she has more recently said that the US can invest in a clean energy economy without barring that type of production.
Some gas industry advocates have seen her recent comments as an indicator that a Harris administration would be cognizant of the role that gas plays in the US energy sector. But others in the space see potential risks, wary of the possibility that environmentalists could push Harris to adopt policies that would limit fossil fuel infrastructure or production.
Environmental groups have argued steadily against developing more fossil fuel infrastructure to avoid locking in greenhouse gas emissions for decades.
"Somebody who's president from 2025 until 2029 is not going to be making the energy decisions of the 2020s," said Gillian Giannetti, policy advisor for NRDC Action Fund. "They're going to be making the energy decisions of the 2040s, and when we look ahead at where we need to be in order to have any chance of meeting our climate targets, it is simply incompatible for us to be on the upswing in terms of fossil fuel production."
The Biden administration's regulatory efforts to streamline permitting have often emphasized clearing hurdles for emission-reducing or clean energy projects — and have included provisions to weigh climate and environmental justice.
Legislative push
The main vehicle moving in Congress is a bipartisan permitting bill that advanced 15-4 in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and could see action in the lame-duck session after the election.
The measure seeks to speed electric transmission, LNG projects, and renewable projects. But it does not yet include more extensive measures sought by gas pipelines to put limits on NEPA litigation and blunt the ability of states to block gas projects using CWA authorities.
If either party gains trifecta control of government, that could alter the political equation around what is viewed as possible — though many policy observers suggest bipartisan legislation has better odds of taking effect.
Geographic trends
Litigation and delays have helped push much pipeline project development to the US Gulf Coast, where LNG exports are driving up gas demand — and there is opportunity for intrastate projects.
Around 45 Bcf/d of gas pipeline projects are in various stages of development in the US Gulf Coast, with in-service targets between 2024 and 2030, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. That includes more than 30 Bcf/d of new pipelines. Not all of these projects are expected to make it to the finish line.
"Today, most development occurs in areas like Texas and Louisiana where federal jurisdiction doesn't apply and state-level approvals are reliable," said Reilly Meinert, data scientist at Arbo, referring to intrastate development.
Sara Hakim, S&P Global Commodity Insights director, North American gas, power and climate solutions, said the demand for Northeast gas is still there but it remains very difficult to build a new pipeline to get volumes out of the region.
"If we can get more Northeast gas out of the Marcellus, that will provide very affordable gas to where it needs to go and meet all the demand, and then likely [we] won't have the price surge that we may have in different times," she said. "But that's very unlikely."
Personnel choices
The presidency is important for personnel, including selection of leadership at FERC and other agencies — along with judges.
Still, former Trump staffers' plans to put political allies into agencies have spurred concerns in some quarters over risks of court delays down the road.
"Telling agencies to put their thumb on the scale for fast reviews can make for less durable permits once they are litigated — and they will be litigated," said one gas sector advocate who asked to remain anonymous.
Giannetti offered that a second Trump administration could be "much more clever" and careful in exercising executive authority than was the case under a first Trump administration.
"Every pipeline company understands that every pipeline certificate project and application at the federal and state level has to have a sufficient record," said William Scherman, a partner at Vinson & Elkins. "There are no shortcuts because the many environmentalists have become adroit in targeting the application or permit which they think is most vulnerable based upon the applicable administrative record."