Originally published for customers March 19, 2025.
What’s the issue?
Arbo’s model shows that all nine liquefaction blocks at Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 are online and are producing LNG. However, forecasting in-service timings remains complex due to limited transparency in regulatory filings.
Why does it matter?
Accurately predicting first LNG production is critical for assessing future project expansions, natural gas supply dynamics, and resulting market fluctuations.
What’s our view?
By tracking key indicators, Arbo was able to accurately forecast Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 by block within a week of estimated first LNG production. We will improve our accuracy for Phase 2 forecasts by employing a refined methodology and using Phase 1 as a benchmark.
Arbo’s model shows that all nine liquefaction blocks at Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 are online and are producing LNG. However, forecasting in-service timings remains complex due to limited transparency in regulatory filings. Accurately predicting first LNG production is critical for assessing future project expansions, natural gas supply dynamics and resulting market fluctuations.
By tracking key indicators, Arbo was able to accurately forecast when each block in Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 likely began producing LNG within a week of estimated first LNG production. We will improve our accuracy for Phase 2 forecasts by employing a refined methodology and using Phase 1 as a benchmark.
Venture Global describes Plaquemines LNG differently across filings with regulators. In its FERC application, the project has two phases, each with nine liquefaction blocks (18 trains each). But in its IPO filings Phase 1 is listed as 12 blocks (24 trains) and Phase 2 as six blocks (12 trains). Since FERC regulates construction and commissioning and Venture Global must comply with FERC’s decisions, we consider each phase to have nine blocks.
Plaquemines LNG uses modular liquefaction technology, allowing for earlier commissioning by enabling the smaller units to be brought online incrementally. The only other existing modular facility is Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass.
As noted in Plaquemines Shipped LNG … Now What?, we track ten key FERC orders that most LNG projects receive. The final key milestone before commissioning is typically the authorization to introduce refrigerants or hazardous fluids. However, the use of modular technology at these facilities creates a different timeline between key FERC authorizations and first LNG production compared to other LNG projects.
Historical data shows that, on average, liquefaction trains produce first LNG approximately 50 days after receiving a hazardous fluids authorization. However, Plaquemines LNG has consistently outpaced this timeline, averaging just 22 days due to its modular liquefaction technology. These trends informed our methodology.
To enhance forecast accuracy, Arbo incorporated multiple datasets, including scheduled gas volumes from Plaquemines's two feeder pipelines.
Each block at Plaquemines has a baseload inlet of .14 Bcf/d and a peak capacity of .18 Bcf/d, with an additional 10% of the inlet volume used for power generation. By analyzing the scheduled volumes from feeder pipelines and subtracting fuel used for power generation, we identified that a sustained increase of approximately 0.2 Bcf/d indicated the start of LNG production for a new block.
The graph below overlays inlet pipeline volumes with first LNG production dates as of March 18, 2025. Since there is no definitive way to identify when a block begins producing first LNG, the dates of first LNG production are inferred. Hazardous fluids authorizations indicate that Plaquemines can produce LNG, but they do not guarantee that the liquefaction block is actively doing so. As seen in the graph below, a .2 Bcf/d increase in inlet volumes, following a hazardous fluids authorization, is indicative of first LNG production.
The graph below reflects how our forecasts improved each time a new liquefaction block likely began producing LNG. Blocks 1-3 were not forecasted due to an insufficient sample size. The peach circles represent our forecasts approximately 21 days before estimated first LNG production, while the dark blue squares — made about eight days prior to estimated first LNG — reflect our adjustments after the previous block began producing LNG.
The shortest period between hazardous fluids authorization and estimated first LNG production was 16 days on Blocks 8 and 9, while the longest was 32 days for Block 6. This may be because Blocks 5 and 6 received a paired authorization. This would require Block 5 to start service before Block 6. As a result, Block 6 experienced a longer lag between authorization and estimated first LNG.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Venture Global plans to commission and start exporting LNG from Plaquemines Phase 2 later this year, which aligns with our view. We will use a similar forecasting methodology for Phase 2 but will use Phase 1 as a benchmark to improve accuracy.
In addition to Plaquemines Phase 2, Venture Global recently began the FID process on CP2 LNG and is targeting FID on Plaquemines Phase 3 in 2027. With multiple LNG projects in development, precise forecasts will be critical for commodity traders to make informed decisions.
Subscribers who receive ArView Project Intelligence (PI) Alerts can receive our forecasts on Plaquemines and other LNG projects as they develop. In addition to LNG terminals, we also provide alerts forecasting the in-service dates for key interstate and intrastate pipeline projects. Subscribers receive updates within hours of major regulatory milestones or litigation events, equipping them with insights needed to stay ahead of market shifts.